This is the page of the Pufendorf Advanced Study Group (ASG) "Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities" devoted to Bayesian methods. The ASG is hosted by the Pufendorf Institute at Lund University, Sweden.

The purpose of this initiative is to advance the understanding and use of Bayesian methodology for the quantification and communication of uncertainty at Lund University. The core interests of the group are in Bayesian Methods for statistical inference, modelling and applications. We organize the annual conference "Bayes@Lund", as well as workshops and seminars with internationally renowned scholars leading the development of Bayesian methods. As a long term goal the ASG aims at creating opportunities for researchers at Lund University to meet, initiate collaborations and work on common projects.


For email updates and announcements, please register at this email list.


Confirmed events for 2015-16 are:

- "Communicate uncertainty with society", 2 December 2015. Organizer Ullrika Sahlin
- workshop on "Bayesian methods using Stan" with Aki Vehtari, 10 December 2015. Organizer Umberto Picchini
- seminar and hands-on, Bayesian Inference and Prior-data Conflict by Gero Walter, 15 December 2015. Organizer Ullrika Sahlin
- workshop on Bayesian inference, with Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, 4 February 2016. Organizer Rasmus Bååth
- conference Bayes@Lund, 5 February 2016. Organizer Rasmus Bååth and Ullrika Sahlin
- workshop on Approximate Bayesian Computation with Michael Blum, 10 March 2016. Organizer Umberto Picchini
- workshop on R-INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation) with Geir-Arne Fuglstad, 14-15 April 2016. Further details will follow. Organizer Johan Lindström
- open discussion (in Swedish) "Osäkra risker och politiskt beslutsfattande", 28 April 2016. Organizer Ullrika Sahlin

Who we are

The ASG has been created in 2015 by the following researchers at Lund University and is hosted by the Pufendorf Institute:

Jonas Björk (Department of Laboratory Medicine)
Rasmus Bååth (Department of Philosophy)
Johan Lindström (Centre for Mathematical Sciences)
Geoffrey Patching (Department of Psychology)
Kurt Petersen (Division of Risk Management)
Umberto Picchini (Centre for Mathematical Sciences)
Krzysztof Podgorski (Department of Statistics)
Nils-Eric Sahlin (Faculty of Medicine)
Ullrika Sahlin (Centre of Environmental and Climate Research)
Martin Stjernman (Department of Biology)


For enquiries please contact any of the following: Rasmus Bååth, Umberto Picchini and Ullrika Sahlin.