Title: Event history analysis and the cross-section

Niels Keiding
Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health,
University of Copenhagen

In event history analysis individuals are assumed to move between
states, and multi-state models are used for their description. In this
presentation I survey my interests in event histories developing in
calendar time, studied at a cross-section at a particular time. The
Lexis diagram is helpful here.

I first consider three examples of studying "incidence"

* from the current status at the cross-section (application: rubella
  incidence based on seroprevalence data).

* retrospectively before the cross-section, invoking Horvitz-Thompson
 type weights from additional survival information (application:
 diabetes incidence in Fyn 1933-73 based on prevalent sample in
 1973).

* retrospectively observed interaction between two life history
 events, allowing non-symmetric dependence concepts (application:
 pustulosis palmo-plantaris and menopause).

and then three examples of studying "mortality"

* from current duration at the cross-section (application: time to
 pregnancy).

* prevalent cohort studies (application: survival of diabetics based
 on follow-up of the prevalent sample from 1973).

* confirmatory analysis of a possible chance finding at an interim
 analysis of a clinical trial with staggered entry, obtaining by
 reusing, with delayed entry, the survivors from the interim analysis
 (application: breast cancer trial).