Förbättring av temperaturprognoser i online-miljö för styrning av fjärrvärmeproduktion

Robert Ryning

Centre for Mathematical Sciences
Mathematical Statistics
Lund Institute of Technology,
Lund University,

ISSN 1404-6342
In district heating systems the producer needs to be able to predict the energy consumption. This is part of the production control, in order to meet the customers demand for heat and hot water in an economically efficient way. An important factor for the energy consumption is the ambient temperature. Prediction of the ambient temperature is therefore an important part of algorithms for prediction of energy consumption. For prediction of the temperature, weather forecasts from a meteorological institute, in this case SMHI, are being used. Such forecasts are however not adapted to the location where the district heating plant and its customers are situated, but they are made for a larger area. The aim of this thesis is to improve the weather forecasts by combining forecasts from SMHI with local measurements of the temperature. The developed method operates on line, that is, the system uses new forecasts and measurements as soon as they become available.
Three kinds of forecasts are being used. The first kind is an adjustment of the SMHI forecast. The second kind is based on a statistical model of the local ambient temperature. The third kind is a combination of the first two forecast kinds.