Last modified: 2 April 2013

MASC01: Probability Theory

Course scheme:
See below. The course will be given in English.

Department:
Mathematical Statistics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences

Credits:
7.5 ECTS credits (5 poäng)

Requirements:
45 ECTS credits in Mathematics and a course corresponding to MASA01 Mathematical Statistics, General Course.

Time period:
The first part of the spring semester. The first lecture is on Monday 2013-1-21, 10:15-12:00 in MH:362D.

Course literature:
A. Gut, "An Intermediate Course in Probability Theory", 2nd edition, Springer 2009. (The book is also available as e-book through the Lund University Libraries.)

Lecturer Spring 2013:
Stanislav Volkov


PRELIMINARY COURSE CONTENT (and old detailed version)

1. The transformation theorem.
2. Conditional density function. Conditional expectation. Conditional variance.
3. The moment generating function, the characteristic function: definitions, properties. Uniqueness theorem.
4. Sums of a random number of random variables: expected value, variance, moment generating function.
5. Branching process: definition, moment generating function (iteration formula), expected value, variance, probability of ultimate extinction.
6. Order statistics: joint distribution.
7. Multivariate normal distribution: characteristic function, density.
8. Multivariate normal distribution: conditional distribution, incl. general case (not in the textbook).
9. Multivariate normal distribution: independence, Daly's theorem.
10. Four types of convergence for the random variables. Theorems of uniqueness of the limits.
11. Relations between different types of convergence. Proof of all relations (incl. a.s. implies in probability)
12. Borel-Cantelli lemma.
13. The Weak Law of Large Numbers.
14. The Central Limit Theorem.
15. Convergence of the sums of the sequences of random variables.
16. The Poisson process: two definitions and their equivalence.
17. The Poisson process: superposition and thinning.
18. The distribution of the consecutive moments of occurences of the Poisson process.
19. The joint distribution of the consecutive moments of occurences of the Poisson process given the value of the process at time 1.

ACTUAL INFORMATION

We will have 3 lectures during the first week (also on Tuesday 22 January instead of exercises)
Exam: (1) theoretical questions WILL BE on the written exam (e.g. proofs of theorems we had in class); (2) you WILL get a list of distributions (densities/pmf) relevant to the exam.

Problems for exercises session on January 29
Problems for exercises session on February 5
Problems for exercises session on February 12
Problems for exercises session on February 19
Problems for exercises session on February 26
Problems for exercises session on March 5

Sample old exam and its solution.

Course schedule from 21 January till 7 March 2013:

Monday
10:15-12:00
Lecture
MH:362D
Tuesday
10:15-12:00 Exercises
E:3316
Thursday
10:15-12:00 Lecture
MH:B


EXAMS (will be writtten only)

Exam: 2013-03-14. Time: 8-13. Place: Sparta B

Resit exam (omtenta): 2013-04-06. Time: 8-13. Place: VIC 3D

Resit exam 2 (omtenta): 2013-08-23. Time: 8-13 (?). Place: Sparta B(?)